Monday, October 15, 2012

Crash Proof-2.0 by Peter Schiff



Good and courageous book . Peter Schiff talks about how the US as a country and US Economy , from an economy which was producing more than waht it was producing in the 40 s through possibly the 60 s, has started consuming more than what it produces.

It is a clearly a doomsday prediction of the US economy .

The points that the author makes are valid and appear quite sensible , but is quite full of himself, with a lot of chest thumping and I told you so or I am telling you so. Also laced with a bit of marketing of his Company Euro Pacific.

The author talks of how US is running a huge current accout deficit of more than $ 700-800 Bio per annum and how the current total debt of $ 8.5 trillion could submerge the US economy.In addition talks of unfunded pension benefits of $ 33 Trillion or so.

Draws parallel between a national economy and a normal  a household budget  and tries to pitch his point as to how , a household which continuously borrows can not sustain for long, an economy would meet up with the same fate, albeit after a prolonged period.

Labours on the point that how the economists , instead of advising less spending and saving more, are advocating additional expenditure by the Government to kick start the economy again.

He talks of how easy money and low interest rates , provided an incentive to borrow rather than an incentive to save.
Talks of how US Government is trying to save financials institutions instead of letting them die so that the market forces bring in the required correction.

Talks , how the US Government is faking and artificially spreading a feeling of well being 

Talks of how much US owes countries all across.

US which had a Gold backed currency system, got out of the same in 1971 and since then have had access and tendency to print money, what he calls the fiat currency

Author talks of the real estate bubble and how it burst and how easy borrowings had made that possible

Talks of impending fall of US currency and advises people to invest abroad, in Asia.He expects inflation in US . Talks of how investments abroad , in addition to getting genuine returns could give a huge additional kicker in terms of current deprecation ( usd)

Talks, how a lot of Governments have gone out of the Gold standard and resorted to currency printing

Says that private individuals may force a comeback of Gold standard

Predicts huge bull market in Gold. Advocates hoarding of Gold coins and Gold as such.
Talks of how US has been fooling the world and continues to give the comfort to people as reservce currency

Talks of how a small thing can have a cascading effect and the cookie could crumble.

The points without doubt are well taken but whether US will crash or something will be done to rescucitate the economy and bring it back to health is a question. All said and done, US has the smartest collection of people and it is quite posisble that they would bail themselves out before shit hits the fans, as they say.

One major factor the author does not touch upon , is , US is the repository of the best scientific minds , the best research instituitions and possibly the originator of a whole lot of new ideas. Intellectual production still happens there. IP is a lot more valuable than hard goods.May be that would save them. Of course , IP by its very nature is a bit elitist, intellectual elitism at that , but may not help in keeping a large population , which would be mediocre , happy and well off. There could be a problem in that.



Friday, October 5, 2012

Snowball-Biography of Warren Buffett by Alice Schroeder



Half way through the book.

Recall , statements attributed to Warren Buffett that when one  buys a share one has to look at it as buying in to a business. While the broad meaning is understood, in his case, he was buying significant portions and in fact works with the Company management and in several cases ,  appoints  a new team and tries to change the course of things.

You can't just call him just an investor, he was and in fact possibly continues to be an active investor , who actively participated in policy aspects of the Company he had invested in.His holdings were all almost controlling or close to controlling interests.

Completed the book.

 Excellent read. A good combination of personal and technical mix. All said and done it is a biography of an individual who had exceptional talent in spotting great investments and one has to necessarily capture the some technical aspects and the technical and personal attributes that he had which made him the success that he was.

It would also be wrong to assume that he did not make mistakes in his investment career. He did make mistakes, in fact his first fairly large investment ib , Berkshire which was predominantly in to textile business was itself a mistake. It is another fact that he worked around the Company and merged or juxtaposed other businesses in to this and made it a grand success.

His training under Ben Graham and the ideas and the principles that he imbibies from his teacher shows in his early investments. The concepts of cigar butts ( small value left in cigar butts but to which nobody pays attention) and the concept of margin of safety. Graham basically looked at tangible and solid assets and almost always valued and saw value in each of the proposed investment in terms of its liquidation value . While that served Buffett well in early stages, he was quite well influnced by various people including his close friend Charlie Munger in terms of seeing value in business in terms of its business worth as a going concern and the ability of the business to churn out value day in and day out. It was a delightful combination of , Ben Graham and Phil Fisher ?

Warren Buffett repeatedly picked up great Franchisee businesses , that had great brands and that could be replicated across developing a large customer base.

He picked up Sees candies, Coke at a later stage .He saw the fabulous source of capital to fund his invetment ideas in Insurance business where the premium os collected upfront. He was one who always was working at probabilities ,evaluating the overall chance of success, ensuring that downside risks were limited and this business fitted in very well.

It was very clear from his early days as an investor( as a kid ) that he was extremely focussed in "money"
Thew delightful aspect is his ideas and principles also grow and mature with age and success. Some one who valued money so much to finally come to a conclusion that money's value is best when it is used for the most productive cause is great. The biggest surprise was that he was not one of those narcissists who wanted to have several foundations in his name. Objective was very clear, he wants his money to be put to good use and finding that his great and younger friend , Bill Gates was and is continueing to do that in his foundation has pledged most of his money to their foundation.

He was an investor but was not just a passive investor , he was involved in shaping the policies of the management and ensuring that they do not get in wrong businesses , at the same time , not interfering on regular matters of management.

He was also not one of those people whose sole aim was to protect his investment record and make money . He was very particular that his reputation of  man who did business ethically was protected at all times. 

On quite a few acquisitions, remunerates the existing promoters at an agreed and reasonable price rather than making use of a price which reflected the troubled times they were in and the price which reflected such troubled time.

His involvement in Solomon Bros was another case in point. No doubt that he was an investor who was there to make money. He did invest in to Solom Bros on terms which were very good ( Solomon badly wanted the money to save themselves from acquisition by a Corporate invader) but rose up to their defence when they were caught up on ethical issues and were hauled up by SEC . The case involved one of their top employees submitting additional quotes through proxy accounts to corner more treasure bonds.

Of course . such exceptional people , who are so focussed in their interest end up ignoring aspects  of a normal life , possibly could not quite fulfill the emotional needs of his wife and family. Has a strange arrangement, when his wife leaves him but links him up to another woman to take care of him as a companion.That arrangement was also quite dignified the way it was arranged and the way it was maintained

The book touches his professional and personal; relationship with Graham's other students, with Bill Gates, Charlie Munger, Kay Graham ( washington Post ), Sharon Osberg ( Bridge player)


Good book, may a be bit long but made up by the fact that it was a racy read, racy not in terms of any mushy content bit in terms of sequencing, narrative style and content.

The book's title is explained in terms of how Warren Buffette's money making starts off as in a small way and gathers momentum and mass like a snowball.

To briefly go back to how his money making and his mutual fund (partnerhsip) was started, very interesting arrangement and an excellent method of leveraging with equity.
He ropes in people as partners only from those with whom he had excellent personal relationship ( including some of his close relatives with whom he had close relationship like his aunt s etc) and guarantees them a certain minimum return , in an arrangement where he shares losses at 25% below such return and the investor to share some part on the returns in excess of the guaranteed ones. This way , it was clear that he Warren Buffett had an incentive to better the promised returns and was able to earn accelerated money for himself for good work.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Changes in Company Annual reports disclosures- Quantitative aspects



From the  Annual report starting from 2011-12 , found that  the quantitative information like production , sales and raw materials consumed etc are no longer required to be disclosed..

Quite strange. While the broad consensus is for improvement of disclosures and greater transparency, stopping quantitative information is a retrogade step. It is quite possible that the Companies in their desire to stop feeding information to competition must have lobbied to get this requirement removed. This has the side effect of stopping information to investors and potential investors. Comparative analysis becomes that much more difficult .Quantitative information is a key aspect for evaluation.Negative impact of this is greater than the benefits of keeping off competition.

Changes in other disclosures like segregation of liabilities and assets in to current and non-current etc are quite welcome.


Monday, September 24, 2012

Reforms redux



It was quite amusing to read  Dr Manmohan Singh’s statement that the economic situation in the country is almost as bad the one of 1991 . He was trying to justify and rationalize the “reforms”. He and his party has been in power for the last 8 years, not to mention several years before that. Was he trying his best to get the country to this situation and do the clean up as a task and carve a name for himself.

Some method this one, to earn a great name by creating a problem in the first place and  attempt to bail us all out from that problem.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Politics and convictions


Can these two be mentioned in the same breath ? Does not look like it. One does not have to go beyond the present crisis to get an insight in to that. When BJP was in power , the policies that they pursued vigorously are being rejected by them only because the same have been proposed by Congress. FDI Retail is a case in point and I am sure if BJP had been in power the "reforms" like FDI in retail and freeing of fuel prices would have happened earlier.And to round it off, one understands that policies opposed by Cong when they were in opposition are proposed by them.

There are two aspects one is personal convition Vis a Vis party's stand. There could be occassions when on some aspects your personal convictions are not in sync with your party's stated position. I would  think that is okay as long as the principle policies and positions are in sync.

Earlier we used to hear terms like"turncoat" used very derogatively and to reflect on people with no morals and hypocrites. The very fact that the term is no longer in vogue suggests that the behaviour which was used to describe is acceptable to a large extent and is normal . It is no longer something which is bad and unusual.

People's convictions seems to be a function of the party they are in rather than they being in a party due to syn of their personal convictions with that of the party. In fact ,I am not even sure whether any political party has any stated conviction which can stand the test of time.

Is this just a recent trend or has it always been like this ? I would think that this is a recent trend getting worse by the day. Karnataka is a case in point.Yedurappa is part of BJP only because he would be reward with CM position and BJP had him as the leader only because he had a large caste based vote bank under him. 

Quite frustrating .

Friday, June 29, 2012

Corporate accounting and reporting and Ethics– Need for Chartered Accountants to introspect




Sent an email to CA Institute (eboard ) requesting them to publish (19-Jun-2012). No response. Had sent a reminder also. No response. I feel no obligation to wait any longer. After all , I am just stating facts and not denigrating my own bfrethren.  Will go ahead now that I have waited for sometime.

Corporate accounting and reporting and Ethics– Need for Chartered Accountants to introspect
Introduction
All around us there is this talk of lack of ethics , corruption, inability of a normal Citizen to get justice in time , so on and so forth. The biggest irony is that the  normal  citizen who talks about injustices in several cases become the perpetrators in a different role. The same citizen who does not get justice or of whom bribes are demanded becomes the perpetrator in a different avatar. He could be the one complained about. We play different roles and wear different suits. Ethical standards are different , one for preaching and one for personal practice. Human mind is so innovative that they find creative ways of justifying and rationalizing things.While each one of us talks of hypocrisy, if we  do a honest assessment, just a miniscule percentage amongst us only would come with flying colours.While this may be true of the entire society, the aim here is to take stock of and introspect as to what needs to be done of the malaise to whatever extent is prevalent  in our own profession, the Chartered accountants.
Ethics or rather the lack of it amongst professionals
Let me start with something which had received wide publicity to set the tone for the theme. In one of the episodes of his program “Satyameve Jayate”, the Bollywood super star and celebrity, Aamir Khan   brought out the unsavory aspect of lack of ethics amongst some members of the medical profession. This caused a huge furor within the medical profession, at least with the Indian medical association which sought an apology. The unholy nexus that exists between the Hospitals, the diagnostic centers and the doctors and also various other tactics followed by some of the Hospitals geared towards revenue and profit generation is a topic discussed in our drawing rooms, offices  and a matter, some of us would have experienced in our own lives. This is not to paint the entire profession with the same brush. You have several members of the profession rendering yeomen service, but, that cannot take away the fact that there exists a fairly significant number of people, professionally qualified doctors and others associated in the medical profession indulging in practices which what one can term as completely anti- patient. One also finds it difficult to digest the fact as to why we have never heard of the same Indian medical association   taking up cudgels against malpractices in the medical profession. They might have done in a few cases but would never publicize it. Good as well as bad have to be publicized. To say that there exists no wrong doing and hence no need for punishment is just living in denial.
We ,the , Chartered accountants need to take stock of ourselves on the Ethics front
It is also a fashion to talk of lack of ethics and wrong doings in all professions other than their own ones. I have heard lawyers and Chartered accountants and people from various other professions discussing freely and with a lot of passion and righteous anger of sharp and downright fraudulent practices amongst the “other professionals”. Let all of us, Chartered accountants ask ourselves an honest question. Is there not lack of ethics and indulgence in sharp practices amongst the Chartered accountants? CA s has great, some stated and some unstated, fiduciary responsibilities to the society. Don’t we have unethical practitioners amongst us? In fact, Finance professionals (not necessarily Chartered Accountants), post 2008, with all the derivative and credit blow up were and are now also one of the most reviled professionals. That of course is a story for another day. My idea is more to deal with areas in corporate accounting and reporting responsibility of Chartered accountants where there have been failures and continues to be so and issue of ethics in the profession.
 Bigger wrongs  do not make lesser wrongs  all right
While co professionals talk of lack of ethics and corrupt practices amongst “other professionals”, when a motley crowd of professionals (lawyers, CA s and doctors etc ) are together they conveniently talk animatedly about the lack of ethics and corruption levels amongst politicians and the funny aspect is when the politicians meet, they talk of the huge levels of corruption at the ministerial level. All these to justify their own misdemeanours ,which by their own perception are small and in fact  not wrong at all, typical escapism and a perverted way of rationalizing our wrongs.
“Corporate Governance issues” an euphemism for inflated financials and misreporting
One frequently comes across shares, which, in spite of apparently good financial numbers are priced low in the stock market, even factoring in all other factors like Industry, the business cycle etc. The reason, spoken in hush hush tone is “Corporate Governance issues”. What are these Corporate Governance issues? Corporate Governance by its very nature consists of the way the Company is structured and decisions are taken and transacting of business in such a way that the long term interest of the shareholders and various other stakeholders are protected and furthered. Corporate Governance includes amongst other things good business processes, good business practices, ethics, transparency and well calibrated decisions by the Trustees (the Board) with the risk and return in perspective on various decisions . Lack of these could be termed as lack of Corporate Governance. 
The “Corporate Governance issues” that the market players talk of is completely different. It is understood by all the players but rarely spelt out in so many words. “Corporate Governance issues” they talk of is nothing but manipulation of financial numbers. To be fair to the Professional accounting bodies and accounting fraternity and the people framing the accounting regulations, a number of changes have been brought out to ensure that Companies do not take refuge under practices which used to be inadvisable but not prohibited. Consolidation of accounts , segment reporting and few others have furthered the cause of transparency and investor information to make an informed investment decision  What one is talking about is downright manipulation of accounts and misreporting which are swept under the carpet under the garb of aggressive accounting. Just have a look at the financials of the Companies which supposedly have   “Corporate Governance issues”. You will see bloated current assets in most cases and in some cases bloated fixed assets and several other cases “Goodwill” which were possibly an Associate Company making losses bought over or merged at a premium.  A look at the cash flows of such Companies is very revealing. Year after year, you have these Companies show profits but the operational cash flow continues to be negative year after year.
Number manipulation -Innocuousness of the start and snow balling impact.
 Dressing up of numbers starts with a typical and apparently extenuating and appealing  reason like “compulsions from the Banks” (to ensure continuation of the working Capital loan) and a more typical and convincing remedy, “we will make it up next year”.   
Next year the story is repeated with a different story line. This time it could be potential foreign associations in the offing for which a good set of numbers are a must.
The very next year, there could be a potential Private equity investor intending to invest. The numbers have to appear good for a good valuation. The belief is that once the PE investor puts in money, the Company with the extra cash would be able to turnaround.
Move to the next year, the compulsion is a potential strategic investor. We need a good set of numbers to ensure a good valuation and keep the dilution levels low. In some of these cases, the strategic investor buys out the promoters partially and pumps in additional equity for expansions. You can see the reason.
The year after that could be a case of “impending listing”. Once listed the financials massaging get on to a quarterly frequency. The story continues.
These Companies or rather the promoters keep looking for one big deal to sweep all the past sins under the carpet and make money for themselves. This is nothing more than a lottery.
The justification includes the aspect of trying to protect the employees of the Company. The promoters claim that they have a duty to protect the Company in the short term to protect the interests of the employee.This is an emotionally appealing justification but the underlying reason is just selfish and protection of themselves.
In all these cases, you do have qualified Chartered accountants working as part of the Company and churning out these numbers. The combination of being a trained accountant and being focused on ensuring good numbers pushes them to find innovative ways of inflating the profits and going around the audit. Are the auditors backed by very smart set of Chartered accountants missing out the obvious? There are two reasons. You have one set of auditors whose cost structure is so high that they can spend the least amount of time to ensure maximization of revenues Vis –a Vis their cost and there is another set of auditors who have grown with the Company and who can’t afford to antagonize the client lest they lose the client.
Some known cases
You have had several live cases of some of these Companies which had “Corporate Governance issues” surviving in the short term and to the outside world, sometime, even thriving for some time and going turtle after a few years. Few of the retail companies were clear cases of accounting manipulation and many more listed Companies resort to sale of controlling interest or sale of part of the business to raise cash and  reduce debt. They apparently took debt for expansion but the truth most times is quite different. Debts have been taken to fund losses or get cash to replace cash losses.
All these Companies, I am sure have had involvement of Chartered accountants, some of them employed full time and some of them involved as auditors and several others as part of lending Banks and institutions. It is sad but true that they have been sometime active perpetrators or sometimes silent spectators and in rare cases unknowing spectator. Whichever way you look at it is a huge failure either in discharging their fiduciary responsibility to the Shareholders, the investors and potential investors and the society at large or sheer incompetence. Incompetence is a very small percentage one would think. It is mostly a case of active perpetration or turning a blind eye to the whole thing.
I see most of the professional bodies lauding the great work done by their respective members, most of it may be true but there is need to come down heavily on wrong doings. Not only is it necessary to punish, it is more important to publicize such punishments.
Even in United State of America which calls or at least called itself a very evolved financial regulatory system, you had the biggest scams. Theyare tightening  their laws and have in fact been coming down heavily on Corporate and Financial frauds including “Insider trading”.
Difficulties in being ethical in a world where you can survive only by currying favors
Wherever one goes or whoever one approaches ,say,for completion of a tax  assessment or an appellate proceedings ,the clients , even the assesses whose accounts are clean and who has been compliant with the laws of the land , there is this expectation of favors from the authorities  and the professional CA  is guided by the client or sometimes the CA  guides the client to extend the “favor “ and incur the “lesser cost” to avoid a larger future cost .The larger cost could be just the nuisance value of assessments not being completed or it could be threat of some tax claims on the client . The equation at most times is a no brainer. Also take the case of a professional who refuses to go by this. He stands a definite chance of losing the client for which there always hawks waiting in the wings to pick up. Not for a moment one can deny the difficulty of surviving in a world where the unstated and tacitly accepted norm is exchange of favours.But when we talk so proudly of a great profession, don’t we have the responsibility of being different. It is sad that there is a tacit acceptance that passing on favors is okay. Even now the aspect of “Financial frauds” and favors to ensure lower taxes and similar white collar crimes are considered okay. They are not viewed with the same degree of distaste that  a physical crime is. In the author’s view ( I am sure that would be the case with most ) the social cost of white collar crime is significantly larger than the cost of physical harm to anyone. An “Enron” caused a lot more damage to its own employees and investors than any type of physical violence. It deprived several employees and other investors their lifetime savings and the means to live a dignified retirement life.
Consequences and the fallout
First and foremost is the belief amongst the public that the accountants are there to manipulate and support the owners of business  and that they do not perceive that they have a responsibility to the society. There is a certain degree of  negative perception about the profession.
Second is the belief that Professional accountants need to be employed so that the negotiation base for “favors” is on a strong footing. Extent of favor is a function of knowledge and non-compliance. A professional with a better knowledge base of the subject as well as the likely consequences, can weigh the cost of favor Vis a Vis the likely consequential cost .This is nothing but a glorified intermediation for an anti-social activity. The profession’s standing in the eyes of the public goes down.
The good work of Chartered accountants’ professional work in general is not something which shows up as a socially benefitting area of work in terms of its proximate and direct benefit. The benefits are multifold and huge but quite a derived one. One should be able to easily gauge the impact it has on the society by looking at the damage to society in the absence of the accounting professionals or failure by the accounting professionals in discharging their duties. The case of “Enron” mentioned above stands ample testimony to that.
Widespread “financials” manipulation gives rise to lack of credibility in shares and even inclination to avoid Companies which have a good business model and with transparent financials.  
Possible remedial steps.
There are several steps that can be suggested to bring down the incidence of financial manipulation but the greatest single step would be for the CA s to take a resolution of not being a party to manipulations. That may happen in an utopian world. For the record, however, one can bring down the incidence with the following broad steps.
1.       High focus of automation of all Governmental processes and building a system driven work flow. I recall Mr. Narayanmurthy, Founder Infosys talking about this in an interview connected to "Lok pal movement "and one definitely agrees with the fact that this can bring down corruption and need for Professional like CA to curry favours.The CA s should spearhead these and come out with suggestions on this front, in fact the CA Institute should have a focussed committee to suggest areas where automation can be targeted to bring down malpractices.

2.       Need for the CA institute and the professional accounting bodies not to be studiously avoiding embarrassing topics like lack of ethics. They need to boldly talk about it in various forums and emphasise the need for CA s to refrain from non-ethical practices. There is a need to get over the hesitation in talking about wrongs. The more we talk the better is it for the profession to correct itself.

3.       Unethical and misreporting and manipulation of accounts should have a high penal cost. The cost should include a ban from practice plus punishment under the criminal provisions. One is sure that there are possibly laws to that effect in our Country. As is the normal problem, such laws are rarely enforced. Need is to make a few examples.

4.       Make the CA's allegiance to the Institute larger than their allegiance to the employers. Have a cell where CA and others can report existence of non-ethical practises in the Companies. Initially have a practice of protecting the identity of the informer. Gradually we can look at greater disclosures.

5.       System of compulsory rotation of Statutory auditors atleast once in 3-4 years.

Some of the above are just suggestions. I am sure several of my fellow CA professional would come out with far better ideas to remedy the situation buy we have to make a start somewhere.

S.Srikanthan
+91 97415 97791
Membership No 024079

Friday, June 8, 2012

Trip to Madurai

Had to make a quick trip to Madurai to take Archana for an interview at Madurai Kamaraj University for M.Sc Microbial technology. The Hotel we checked in ( we reached the morning of the interview , the interview was scheduled for 1 o clock in the afternoon) , Madurai Residency was okay without being great. Surprisingly the tariff was not low. It was around Rs 2400 inclusive of taxes. Location was great. Close to the Station and Bus stand. Took an auto and reached the  University which is some 12-14 Kms away.
People there were quite nice. Typical semi urban place. The campus was medium sized and sparsely populated but not well maintained. They could do with a lot more tall trees to create shaded Roads. Havn't taken the trouble at all.Not too much commercial activity also around the Campus.

Initially the option appeared attractive but a conversation with two senior students possibly effectively decided the issue against. They were both from North and had their usual bias. Language must have been a problem and food also. The Hostel facility was not great. Archana did have a look.
Quite hot like most other South India towns are. Not very different from Trichy

Madurai may be is a bit bigger. Since we could n't get the Wait listed tickets confirmed, had time before catching the late night bus.Went to Meenakshi temple for Darshan.Good temple. Typical good architecture. Needs more time.