Breakout Nations by Ruchir Sharma

Breakout Nations by Ruchir Sharma

Excellent book a person who has been working on emerging markets for several years and who has been studying markets and economies for several years.High credibility and instead of just theorizing the author has come out with specific examples of how the nations have fared in the last 20-30 years and what they had done during the same period. If they had got something right, he also given the background as to what was done during that period and what kind of a leader was at the helm of affairs.Conclusions are invariably based on empirical analysis and data . Instead of deluging and deluding  the reader with too much and data, the author has given critical data , the data which has  and really had a huge bearing on the way the economies of nations  fared.He has been consistent with the data. not cherry picking data to suit a foregone conclusion. By and large one can see across the book that the author focuses on country’s leadership,data on Debt to GDP ,the country’s willingness to bring it to reasonable levels,  education eco system ,position of the currency and the strength of laws for foreigners to come and do business or to invest.

The author comes out with a telling observation as to the impact on economy and the GDP growth the type of Government , whether democracy or dictatorial or  strong state rule .. and comes to the conclusion based on empirical data that it is just a 50:50 score, meaning that it does not make an impact one way or other as a general concept but what really matters is the kind of leader and the leadership

Some of the key takeaways from the book , not necessarily in chronological or even logical order but the way I can recall are as follows

§  More than the type of Government it was the type of the leader which made the difference.

§  Countries which have been blessed with natural resources like oil, minerals have by and large been in a roller coaster ride , that is when the commodities as it does happen in most cases of commodities, they go through a turmoil barring a few exceptions like Norway who have built some kind of a protection fund and have also invested in other capabilities.He also brings home the point , especially in case of resource rich but with a poor industrial and or education base,how they need to get help fron technologically advanced developed nationbs to extract the resources paying a huge money.

§  Nation like Brazil whose currency is overvalued ,literally pricing itself out . Very high USD costs

§  India for all its confidence ( author terms it over confidence) at a per capita income of  $ 1400 is way below most of the nations, in fact the onlt nations which are scraping below are Bangladesh,Vietnam and Pakistana dn may be a few Islamic countries

§  Gives an exceptional example of Turkey where power has shifted from the secular parties to a more Islamic but not retrograde political leadership. This, per author has brought the larger population to the mainstream without being apologetic about their religious affiliations, sounds like current India. Of course it is another question whether India will progress under NDA under whom people do not have to be apologetic for being a religious and part of majority to boot.

§  On Nigeria , the author comments that it was one of the oil propelled economies which lost it way and now trying to make a comeback under the leadership of Jonathan Goodluck.

§  Philippines ,lost it way and trying to make a comeback under new leadership

§  Has high praise for Czech republic and  Poland and to some extent for  Hungary .

§  Praise for South Korea and how they have built apart from capability on manufacturing , some great brands

§  In this edition has also added some information on US and some European nations , As for US, the author feels that notwithstanding the high debt componebt of US , its innovation plus the fact that it is rebuilding its manufacturing capability ,helped to some extent by the falling USD would stand them in good stead.

§  China the wages are rising and Yuan rising , may lose its competitive edge a bit and may not be able to sustain the 8-10% growth rate perennially.

§  Focusses on GDP,Savings rate, debt in relation to GDP,Spend on Investment or consumption ,the currency and the interest rate.

§  Feels that Japan has lost its way. To get a soft landing of the economic downslide, Japan had foregone hard decisions in the 90 s and let the economy wallow or chug along.

Emerging markets
Country	GDP in USD bn	Per capita in USD
Brazil	2,518	12,000
Chile	243	13,000
Colombia	321	7,000
Mexico	1,185	11,000
Peru	168	5,500
Czech republic	220	21,000
Hungary	148	15,000
Poland	532	14,000
Russia	1,885	13,000
Turkey	763	10,500
Eqypt	232	3,000
Monaco	120	3,000
South Africa	422	8,000

Emerging markets

China	6,988	5,000
India	1,843	1,400
Indonesia	834	3,500
Korea	1,164	23,500
Malaysia	248	8,000
Philippines	216	2,500
Taiwan	505	21,500
Thailand	339	5,000

Frontier Markets
Country	GDP in USD bn	Per capita in USD
Argentina	435	10,500
Ecuador	65	4,500
Panama	30	8,500
Jamaica	1,185	5,500
Trinidad & Tobago	22	17,000
Bulgaria	54	7,000
Croatia	64	14,500
Estonia	23	17,000
Latvia	27	12,000
Lithuania	43	13,000
Romania	185	8,000
Serbia	46	6,000
Slovenia	52	26,000
Ukraine	163	3,500
Botswana	16	9,000
Ghana	39	1,500
Kenya	36	1,000
Mauritius	11	8,500
Namibia	13	6,000
Nigeria	247	1,500
Tunisia	49	4,500
Bahrain	26	23,000
Jordan	28	4,500
Kuwait	171	46,500
Lebanon	41	10,500
Oman	67	21,500
Qatar	173	98,000
Saudi Arabia	560	20,000
UAE	358	66,500
Bangladesh	115	500
Kazhakstan	180	11,000
Pakistan	204	1,000
Sri Lanka	59	3,000
Vietnam	122	1,300

Rise and Fall of Third Reich authored by William Shirer

 Rise and Fall of Third Reich authored by William Shirer

29-May-2014

This book Rise and Fall of Third Reich authored by William Shirer, I had bought on 15 th August 1986 (one of the wheeler outlets may be from some Rly station, not sure). After 28 years, had the patience, the resolve and time to take up reading this tome (some 1500 pages in small print) and finished reading it today. Quite a tough read but racy also in several parts. Looks to have been extremely well researched. The author had the twin advantage of having been a reporter in and around Germany during the war time Europe and  the run up to the war  and had the advantage of access to several documents and books written based on the same  depositions during  and after the Nuremberg trials. A number of diaries maintained by some of the Germans who were privy (like General Haldar) and at close quarters to the happenings of that time have come in handy.

Such a detailed one that it would be an effort to recall things and write down a brief note for my own future reference and recall. Almost impossible to recall a lot of things with clarity unless you do second read. Even then it could become difficult, could be text book of German History in the run up and during the Nazi regime.

The author has spent more time in tracing the aftermath of World War I which possibly was the major reason why someone with as warped a mind as Hitler was and without doubt a terrific orator and in his own right a genius could have brain washed an entire nation and more importantly worked around the favorable factors in a devious way to his advantage to get to occupy the undisputed leader. World war I had (Weimar republic) had put a huge burden on Germany as a nation. They had to cede parts of Austria and several other areas and had to bear the burden of huge reparations to the European nations as part of the process of compensating them for the losses caused due to the war initiated by Germany, which incidentally lasted 4 years (1914-18). Germany was under severe burden, people lost jobs, inflation was high, of course Germany also printed notes to devalue the currency and pay off the war cost, the nation was at its lowest. The nation in terms of the Governance was in a limbo, a kind of transition period when monarchy was done away with and was ruled under the overall care of Field Marshal Hindenburg. The Field Marshal an old man was a kind of guardian to keep an eye on the Reichstag (parliament) elected.

Hitler was born to Alois Hitler who was born out of wedlock and carried his mother’s maiden name Schikleburger before his father married his mother and gave him the privilege of taking father’s surname ( Hiedler) was given. Somehow this became Hitler.. He was born in Branau am Inn, Austria .

Was a racist , feelings of Aryan supremacy, completely against Jews, so much so that he thought getting rid of Jews of the world was one of the greatest priorities. National socialist party ( Nazi) had this ideology of Aryan supremacy and German Nationalism. Had the view that Germany and the German race were always destined to rulers , the master race and by quirk of fate and circumstances and by deceit had been pushed to an inferior and groveling  position. He made very good use of the prevailing victimhood feeling in the nation . By all accounts was a terrific orator and a terrific organizer. He was clear that Germany was the master race ,Jews were to obliterated , completely annihilated , slavs and others to serve the Germans and Germany and German’s need for additional living space, Lebensraum could be satisfied by invasion.

What really bewilders you as to how a nation which had some of the greatest intellectuals , which produced several great scientists could have fallen for this.It was possibly a combination of great convincing skills, ability to delve in to and appeal to emotions of the people at their vulnerable points and make the German population not to have any compunctions about what was being done to nations and people in the name of correction of wrongs to them.

It is really a wonder that the only credible opposition and attempt to get rid of Hitler was in Jun 1944 by which time it had become clear that Germany and Hitler were in a losing battle.

Since the book is an attempt to trace the run up, the happenings in Germany during Third Reich and the war , while it has dealt with the gas chambers, the inhuman treatment meted out to the POW s , the Jews, the atrocious medical experiments carried out on POW s etc., the same are detailed but not very elaborate. It did touch upon some specific experiments. Such treatment meted out to animals would evoke sympathy and pity in any human being, just to think that such a treatment was meted out to fellow human beings. That is possible only by a mind which is steeped in a  feeling of absolute superiority of self  and the feeling that the “humans” subjected  to such treatment are not quite humans and but  kind of specimens of a different living organism or some lowlife.Himmler and his SS(Schutzstaffel) and his several of his cronies start find innovative ways of quick and faster disposal.

Ribbentrop-Foreign Minister

Herman Goering –Luftwaffe Chief

Himmler  - SS chief

SS-Schutzstaffel ( Defence force)

Gestapo- Secret Police …

Wehrmacht-Army

Reichstag –Parliament

Keitel,Jodl.Halder,Runstaed,,,,, all army generals

More than 80 million deaths out of which death of Germans was only around 10 Mio

Jews approximately 6 Mio were supposed to have been killed.

Concentration camps , Auschwitz, Dachau, Terblinka,….

Start of war 1-Sept-1939 against Poland

End of war 8-May -1945

In retrospect it is quite a surprise to see how soft the Allies were on Hitler especially in the earlier stages. Neville Chamberlain the British PM and Dadalier the French PM appear have been lulled in to a belief and comfort that Hitler and Germany would not wage a war to recapture lost territories of Germany World War I. The signs were all quite clear , at least when viewed in retrospect with a clear knowledge of sequence of events, the thoughts expressed by Hitler in his push to leadership, thoughts expressed in Mein Kampf and clear cut steps taken to weed the nation of Jews and his gradual push in acquiring Austria , later Czecholsolavokia.

Hitler and his gang in the pretext of protecting the ethnic German population which they claimed were suppressed and tortured  recaptured Czech. Austria of course they had prior claims. Same pretext they roll over Poland also. A nation which had rolled over in 1918 and who were paying up war reparations, not only was getting out of it but also appeared to play the dominant card , with Chamberlain not only  meeting up and concluding an agreement in Munich but  trying his best to cajole Hitler from proceeding with his plans for invasion. The author details out the run up as to how Hitler put severe pressure setting time limits for action. Totally manufactured suppressions and stage managed  incidents like bombings and killing of so called Germans ( who were some prisoners waiting in jails to die ).

The Allies wake up quite late , that is only after Poland was attacked and tolled over starting 1 st Sept 1939.Hitler had spurred the German  economy through his war efforts, with a lot of manufacturing aimed to arming Germany and a quite a bit of building infrastructure, one can say the type of Govt spending that Keynes ,  recommended to spur growth in this case with a completely different aim but with the same result in that it provided employment and economic growth. This must have have come as a huge relief to the suffering citizens together with the feeling of having been victimized by Allies, the population must have been easy target for indoctrination of Nazism and German own form of nationalism.

The way Hitler manipulated the system and put himself with all powers is great story in itself. The elections he took part, he won some 30 %, never more than that. Subsequent Plebiscite which were conducted for specific issues were a Yes or No and were conducted in a highly vitiated atmosphere of fear.Gestapo and SS were dominated forces and the prominent citizens and nay sayers were closely monitored, eliminated if did not fall in line.

Some things which were a total revelation notwithstanding the fact that they were very prominent aspects were the aspect of the ease with which Hitler overcame French army , the armistice signed after running over France after the war started, the non-aggression pact with Soviet Union .

His agreement with Italy and/or Soviet Union were matters of convenience and strategy to Hitler. Non-aggression pact plus an agreement to  share the spoils over the conquered countries were key elements. This is no better than dacoits in partnership , deciding to share the loot.

Hitler also proves that such agreements were in fact strategies to buy time, to enable concentrating his forces on one side  and once conquered finds out a reason to renege on the same and conquer the party also. One abiding partnership albeit a bit passive on the part of the other was with Italy and Mussolini except when they conquer parts of North Africa. With Mussolini ousted in his country and kept in custody, Hitler employs a commando unit to get him released , brings him to Germany and keeps him guarded almost till the end of the war. Mussolini meets with a horrible end later.

After  Hitler starts off eating in to Soviet Union, they get in the war. Japan by bombing US gets US in to the war. France rendered hors de combat after the armistice with Germany.

What really shocks is the utter disregard for human life and utter disregard for even a semblance of judicial process. Hitler and his SS and Gestapo cronies get rid of people judged by “people’s court” , an euphemism for summary trials , on the slightest sign of protest or perceived treason. Anything against the Fuehrer was treason.

Even towards the end when they find that Rommel a very popular General and one who was far more ethical and did not quite participate in the tyranny with Jews and POWs , was forced to kill himself when they found that he had hobnobbed with people trying to overthrow Hitler.

We now know the importance of media and the forum it provides , but Goebbels the propaganda minster , of course in the days of controlled media , understood the power of media and propaganda with just radio broadcasts.

Once it became clear that Russia was at the doorstep of Berlin, Hitler, his wife, Eva Braun and Goebbels  and his entire family commit suicide in Hitler’s underground bunker .

Apart from the millions who lost their lives and the millions of property lost, Russia getting in to the war must have resulted in quite a few Eastern European nations getting dominated by Marxists under the overall Soviet control. Between 1945 and 1989, , almost two generations lost great amount of freedom and opportunity during that period. Countries which suffered during World War  II and continued to suffer albeit a different kind , under oppressive regimes till almost later 80 s ( Berlin wall was dismantled in 1989) were Bulgaria, Poland, Yugoslavia,Czechoslovakia,Romania and a whole lot of smaller regions like Georgia,Ukraine,Lithuania, Armenia,Kazhakstan etc distinct ethinic populations which got annexed to USSR and which later separated from Russia .

Hitler must have been without doubt one of the greatest Orators, a great genius albeit perverted .If he had had Atom bomb with him and others did not have the same, he would have caused even more immeasurable damage. Two thoughts, one , such a genius, if he had been constructive, would have transformed Europe, and another thought which keeps coming back is how a nation of great intellectuals which produced several great philosophers, several great scientists could  have become  so tyrannically racist, deluded in to a belief they were indeed the master race and others are there to be subjugated and how could they have come down to being active in some cases and passive in most cases , accomplices of Hitler acquiescing with Nazism ?