Thursday, January 31, 2013

Keep away from high debt companies


Conventional finance teaches that leverage is good when the overall return on capital employed is more than the cost of debt plus when you are making profits, interest cost gives you tax cover. Effectively you get the double advantage of additional return on a post tax basis.

Of course conventional finance also teaches that this could work to the Company's disadvantage if the return on capital employed is less than the debt cost and tax cover is a non issue if one does not make profits.

My personal experience even as recent as a couple of years , is that , if you are not a trader or a speculator , it pays to keep away from leveraged companies. If the expectations are 12-15% post tax, one will be surprised how good such a return is when you see the impact of such a return on a compunded basis , especially in the light of actual and empirical data of how the returns have been

Just to give a simple example, Rs 100 invested at 15% compounded in 5 years would be Rs 201 and at 12% the same would be Rs 176, quite a tidy sum.In the Indian market , there are shares where one can invest safely and expect that kind of returns without a perception of any serious risk.

Another caveat , even if one is ivesting in fundamentally good shares with very little downside risk is, do not invest on leveraged funds. Whether corporate or personal , Investment from borrowed funds is dangerous and puts you in a time bind. You may be right in the investment target but the point is you may prove to be right in the long term when in the short term you run out of money. You would be forced to take sub optimal decison on divestments

My favourite quote in this is of the economist Keynes.... " The markets cam remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"........ 

Have seen shares like Shree Renuka. Geodesic, Subex reeling under debt. 

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Oil refining and marketing Companies- Subsidy news


Appears to be a case of Government realising that Diesel subsidy can not continue for long. In recent times the subsidy has got availed more by the middle class which obviously was not the intention. We are closer to the "tipping point" now than anytime earlier. Even at the current market price of Rs 380 per share ( HPCL ) it makes sense

Mraket Cap is just around Rs 11-12,000 Crs , together with the debts the overall Enterprice value could be around Rs 50,000 Crs. Even a trebling of price, the overall EV could just be around Rs 70,000 Crs, well within a reasonable valuation for a 1,88,000 Crs turnover Company with refining capacities of around 15 Mn T and excellent network in place

I just wish I had accumulated a bit. The price could well touch Rs 2,000 in a few years time. Taking off Government subsidy is always fraught with uncertainties.

Need to tabulate all the refining Companies capacities, Mkt cap and other qualitative factors

Private sector companies can  benefit immensely once the price cap is taken off

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Interesting piece on Japan Economy by Satyajit Das



An interesting piece on Japanese economy in ET . Some very interesting facts

1. The population is ageing so much so that the workforce to retired drawing pensions is low
2. Japan Real estate has been stuck at 1989 levels or so
3. Japan stock markets are at around 20-30% of their prices as of 1981 or 89.. , this was a bit of shock
4. With currency appreciation, their exports have become uncompetitive and stagnating
5. With theprevalence of Zero Interest rates ,savings are down
6. Debt as % age of GDP is around 150%
7 Servicing debt could be a problem the moment the interest rates go to say 2-3%

Just this much I can recall. Appears to be in some kind of vicious bind