Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Life and Times of Einstein by Ronald Clark-



This is just a synopsis and not a critique on the book.

Well researched , I would think , considering the fact that , records if any , available those days were only the written ones and possibly helped by interviews with several people. Of course in the case of Einstein who had become a celebrity of sorts , even those days, his being in the printed news more often and the fact that must have been preserved must have helped .

It was quite surprising to read somewhere that there was no electricity in one of the places Einestein stayed, early in his career, was it Berne ?

Born in Ulm, term him swabian,must have been the term for Jew form that area. While Einstein was born a Jew , did not seem to  have had strong religious feelings or affiliations  till his community started getting  persecuted .

Did his Graduation in ETH, Zurich

Secured  doctorate by submission of thesis to ETH  ?

Left Germnany to pursue education in Switezerland

Gave up German citizenship once, very early in life in his teens to avoid conscription and later again in protest 

Struggled to get a job, research or teaching and after a lot of effort gets a low level job in the Patent office in Switzerland

The time he spent as an employee of Patent office, was almost a science sterile atmosphere. Was almost left to his imagination. Of course did seem to have had some access to scientific journals , but no access to great minds. Had a very average lifestyle. Meeting ends appears to have been a  stretch. Such an imaginative mind , being left to himself,  must have been able to think out Photoelectric effect and  Special theory of relativity in 1905 . Visualising  something totally against the trend of the then  current thinking  is one thing but thinking something radically different and against what no one would suspect even in a dream requires vision beyond any great visionary. Could anyone have imagined that space, length and time are not absolute.

 One understands that he was helped in this, in having got an inkling of things from Maxwell,(electromagnetic field), Lorentz and a few others. Morley Michelson who experimentally disproved the existence of "ether" also helped Eisntein to come to a conclusion that speed of light was absolute and independent of the frame of reference or speed of the origin point. Speed of Light is the limiting speed , nothing can equal or exceed this. While earlier scientists had come close to finding that Matter Very difficult to comprehend. An average brain like yours truly would require several more readings to even come close to understanding the concepts.The mats , for the special theory of relativity was provided by Minkowski, his teacher in ETH.Notwithstanding the gentle nudge that Max Planck, Lorentz and the Morley Michelson experiment gave, still to come out with what he thought out on the relativity of time, space ... was extraordinary to put in the mildest terms.

Shifts to Berlin in 1919 to Kaiser Wilhelm Institute and possibly does he best work in the next 14 years or so.Had become very famous by then and publishes his general thoery of relativity

Great friendship with Max Planck, the quantum man.Had great respect for Lorentz.

Eddington was one of the early converts to relativity and did huge service to the cause of spreading the same across Europe .

Einstein was a confirmed Pacifist . Was completely against Germany's armament and against any kind of armament.

The  author tries to bring out that Einstein , while great physicist was a bit muddled in other aspects.From a lot of information that the author brings out, it does not appear so. He might have been a bit innocent about the ways of the world but to come to a conclusion based on his change from pacifism to armament once Hitler came to power that he was muddled is not correct.

He realised later that Pacifism does not always work. There are occasion when you have arm yourself and threaten to protect the larger interests.

Einstein became such a popular figure ( the splayed and flying hair on the head also created aura and halo like looks must have helped ) that he was perennially invited to address several public meetings , science as well as others.
During the period till mid 1930 s , was a clearly the leader amongst scientists , his opinions and views mattered more than others.

In 1933 , shifts to US and sometime later gives up his German Citizenship again, Continued to retain his Swii Citizenship.

Won the Nobel in 1920 for his discovery on something to do with Photoelectric effect

Spent the last 20-25 years trying to come out with a Unified theoery. Did come out a few times, rejected them himself when it did not quite come comprehensive and logical or when one of the premises was proven wrong (mostly by himself )

Could not quite agree with Bohr on Quantum theories . Bohr had theorised the concept of electrons jumping from shell to shell, giving up and sometimes absorbing energy. Einstein could not quite accept the probabilistic aspect embedded in this.

He was quite sure that any theory should have as one of the basic premise the  Determinancy, and Causal  and not probabilistic as suggested by  Bohr in his quantum theory and Heisenberg.... Famous words of Einstein " God does not play dice" and or something on those lines.

At the time of dying still had fond hopes that the theory of everything  would sometime in future be unravelled.

His unmatched humility and kindness is brought out , so was his being most of the time not being too bothered about personal aspects,conveniences and people were not of great concer also most of the time including his first wife.

Spent last 20 years trying to come out with a simple and comprehensive unified theory

Letter to Roosevelt to speed up the A bomb project though it was quite possible that he was not aware that anyway , US was going ahead albeit at slow speed. Einstein appeared to have been swayed by the fact that there were reports that Germany had made progress on the same.

Offered Presidency of Israel, but rejected due to  a combination of health, inability to devote time and his own perception of his inability to do justice such jobs and also a desire to devote time on science ( Unified theory et al)

Involved a bit with Weizman ( who was the first President ) in the Zionist movement and formation of Israel

Was Involved in founding of  Hebrew University. 

Without doubt , Albert Einstein was a rounded intellectual, less rounded in some aspects but all the same a great thinker who appeared to have applied himself to a variety of things and left no one in doubt as to what was his true calling and talent.
One of the greatest minds , a great and imaginative one at that.Relativity appears almost like a Hindu concept, more specifically , Sankara on the whole universe being "maya". A confluence of wave and matter, interchangeability of energy and matter all appear more Hindu philosophy than Advanced physics.

One understands that he had no fear of death and had a peaceful death when he was 75-76 years , aneurysm of aorta (enlargement of aorta ) which required surgery and with  just about 50% chance of survival. He rejected the idea of any surgery.

Quite a nomadic life, he had, from Germany to Berne, Switzerland to Berlin to USA , initially CALTECH in USA and finally Princeton

The author very well captures how various groups , starting from Jewish group to Pacifists group to..... try using his name and get mileage. Einstein also understood it and lends his name to many. The author suggest that he also had a tendency to make inappropriate statements occasionally.

Einstein had a nice take on him spending the last  20-25 years on "Unified theory", it was almost like chasing a mirage. He was convinced that there could be a simple way of conceptualising and quantifying a comprehensive unified theory and mentions that , he, having a name for himself can afford to spend time on a potentially unsuccessful effort Vis a Vis younger scientists who would be better off spending time on something more concrete with probability of success being more.
Fabulous to read about such great personalities . Uplifting experience and in this case , considering  the theory , almost a spiritual experience.
The author appeared to have felt that , Einstein should have been a bit more forgiving of the Germans. Einstein developed a strong hatred towards the country and to a great extent , large population of the people who went along with Hitler and persecuted, tortured and killed Jews.I find that a normal reaction even of an extraordinary man when one considers the atrocities perpetrated on Jews, imagine 6.0 Mil Jews killed, almost 25% of the global Jewish population annihilated by a mad man .

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Great selection of books or wonderment of an average human being



Almost all the books that I have been reading ( most bought ), I have been finding them good or great and sometime extraordinary. It could be either a case of fabulous selection of authors and/or  books or just that , I am of such average intelligence with low expectations and standards that I end up appreciating anything which is above average and most of the books, I would presume would be good concepts written by significantly above average people.

The truth could be somewhere between the two. I have definitely been making sincere attempts at selecting good books by good authors plus also the factor that I go for subjects which interest me a lot.The bias also adds to the "liking" factor.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Crash Proof-2.0 by Peter Schiff



Good and courageous book . Peter Schiff talks about how the US as a country and US Economy , from an economy which was producing more than waht it was producing in the 40 s through possibly the 60 s, has started consuming more than what it produces.

It is a clearly a doomsday prediction of the US economy .

The points that the author makes are valid and appear quite sensible , but is quite full of himself, with a lot of chest thumping and I told you so or I am telling you so. Also laced with a bit of marketing of his Company Euro Pacific.

The author talks of how US is running a huge current accout deficit of more than $ 700-800 Bio per annum and how the current total debt of $ 8.5 trillion could submerge the US economy.In addition talks of unfunded pension benefits of $ 33 Trillion or so.

Draws parallel between a national economy and a normal  a household budget  and tries to pitch his point as to how , a household which continuously borrows can not sustain for long, an economy would meet up with the same fate, albeit after a prolonged period.

Labours on the point that how the economists , instead of advising less spending and saving more, are advocating additional expenditure by the Government to kick start the economy again.

He talks of how easy money and low interest rates , provided an incentive to borrow rather than an incentive to save.
Talks of how US Government is trying to save financials institutions instead of letting them die so that the market forces bring in the required correction.

Talks , how the US Government is faking and artificially spreading a feeling of well being 

Talks of how much US owes countries all across.

US which had a Gold backed currency system, got out of the same in 1971 and since then have had access and tendency to print money, what he calls the fiat currency

Author talks of the real estate bubble and how it burst and how easy borrowings had made that possible

Talks of impending fall of US currency and advises people to invest abroad, in Asia.He expects inflation in US . Talks of how investments abroad , in addition to getting genuine returns could give a huge additional kicker in terms of current deprecation ( usd)

Talks, how a lot of Governments have gone out of the Gold standard and resorted to currency printing

Says that private individuals may force a comeback of Gold standard

Predicts huge bull market in Gold. Advocates hoarding of Gold coins and Gold as such.
Talks of how US has been fooling the world and continues to give the comfort to people as reservce currency

Talks of how a small thing can have a cascading effect and the cookie could crumble.

The points without doubt are well taken but whether US will crash or something will be done to rescucitate the economy and bring it back to health is a question. All said and done, US has the smartest collection of people and it is quite posisble that they would bail themselves out before shit hits the fans, as they say.

One major factor the author does not touch upon , is , US is the repository of the best scientific minds , the best research instituitions and possibly the originator of a whole lot of new ideas. Intellectual production still happens there. IP is a lot more valuable than hard goods.May be that would save them. Of course , IP by its very nature is a bit elitist, intellectual elitism at that , but may not help in keeping a large population , which would be mediocre , happy and well off. There could be a problem in that.



Friday, October 5, 2012

Snowball-Biography of Warren Buffett by Alice Schroeder



Half way through the book.

Recall , statements attributed to Warren Buffett that when one  buys a share one has to look at it as buying in to a business. While the broad meaning is understood, in his case, he was buying significant portions and in fact works with the Company management and in several cases ,  appoints  a new team and tries to change the course of things.

You can't just call him just an investor, he was and in fact possibly continues to be an active investor , who actively participated in policy aspects of the Company he had invested in.His holdings were all almost controlling or close to controlling interests.

Completed the book.

 Excellent read. A good combination of personal and technical mix. All said and done it is a biography of an individual who had exceptional talent in spotting great investments and one has to necessarily capture the some technical aspects and the technical and personal attributes that he had which made him the success that he was.

It would also be wrong to assume that he did not make mistakes in his investment career. He did make mistakes, in fact his first fairly large investment ib , Berkshire which was predominantly in to textile business was itself a mistake. It is another fact that he worked around the Company and merged or juxtaposed other businesses in to this and made it a grand success.

His training under Ben Graham and the ideas and the principles that he imbibies from his teacher shows in his early investments. The concepts of cigar butts ( small value left in cigar butts but to which nobody pays attention) and the concept of margin of safety. Graham basically looked at tangible and solid assets and almost always valued and saw value in each of the proposed investment in terms of its liquidation value . While that served Buffett well in early stages, he was quite well influnced by various people including his close friend Charlie Munger in terms of seeing value in business in terms of its business worth as a going concern and the ability of the business to churn out value day in and day out. It was a delightful combination of , Ben Graham and Phil Fisher ?

Warren Buffett repeatedly picked up great Franchisee businesses , that had great brands and that could be replicated across developing a large customer base.

He picked up Sees candies, Coke at a later stage .He saw the fabulous source of capital to fund his invetment ideas in Insurance business where the premium os collected upfront. He was one who always was working at probabilities ,evaluating the overall chance of success, ensuring that downside risks were limited and this business fitted in very well.

It was very clear from his early days as an investor( as a kid ) that he was extremely focussed in "money"
Thew delightful aspect is his ideas and principles also grow and mature with age and success. Some one who valued money so much to finally come to a conclusion that money's value is best when it is used for the most productive cause is great. The biggest surprise was that he was not one of those narcissists who wanted to have several foundations in his name. Objective was very clear, he wants his money to be put to good use and finding that his great and younger friend , Bill Gates was and is continueing to do that in his foundation has pledged most of his money to their foundation.

He was an investor but was not just a passive investor , he was involved in shaping the policies of the management and ensuring that they do not get in wrong businesses , at the same time , not interfering on regular matters of management.

He was also not one of those people whose sole aim was to protect his investment record and make money . He was very particular that his reputation of  man who did business ethically was protected at all times. 

On quite a few acquisitions, remunerates the existing promoters at an agreed and reasonable price rather than making use of a price which reflected the troubled times they were in and the price which reflected such troubled time.

His involvement in Solomon Bros was another case in point. No doubt that he was an investor who was there to make money. He did invest in to Solom Bros on terms which were very good ( Solomon badly wanted the money to save themselves from acquisition by a Corporate invader) but rose up to their defence when they were caught up on ethical issues and were hauled up by SEC . The case involved one of their top employees submitting additional quotes through proxy accounts to corner more treasure bonds.

Of course . such exceptional people , who are so focussed in their interest end up ignoring aspects  of a normal life , possibly could not quite fulfill the emotional needs of his wife and family. Has a strange arrangement, when his wife leaves him but links him up to another woman to take care of him as a companion.That arrangement was also quite dignified the way it was arranged and the way it was maintained

The book touches his professional and personal; relationship with Graham's other students, with Bill Gates, Charlie Munger, Kay Graham ( washington Post ), Sharon Osberg ( Bridge player)


Good book, may a be bit long but made up by the fact that it was a racy read, racy not in terms of any mushy content bit in terms of sequencing, narrative style and content.

The book's title is explained in terms of how Warren Buffette's money making starts off as in a small way and gathers momentum and mass like a snowball.

To briefly go back to how his money making and his mutual fund (partnerhsip) was started, very interesting arrangement and an excellent method of leveraging with equity.
He ropes in people as partners only from those with whom he had excellent personal relationship ( including some of his close relatives with whom he had close relationship like his aunt s etc) and guarantees them a certain minimum return , in an arrangement where he shares losses at 25% below such return and the investor to share some part on the returns in excess of the guaranteed ones. This way , it was clear that he Warren Buffett had an incentive to better the promised returns and was able to earn accelerated money for himself for good work.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Changes in Company Annual reports disclosures- Quantitative aspects



From the  Annual report starting from 2011-12 , found that  the quantitative information like production , sales and raw materials consumed etc are no longer required to be disclosed..

Quite strange. While the broad consensus is for improvement of disclosures and greater transparency, stopping quantitative information is a retrogade step. It is quite possible that the Companies in their desire to stop feeding information to competition must have lobbied to get this requirement removed. This has the side effect of stopping information to investors and potential investors. Comparative analysis becomes that much more difficult .Quantitative information is a key aspect for evaluation.Negative impact of this is greater than the benefits of keeping off competition.

Changes in other disclosures like segregation of liabilities and assets in to current and non-current etc are quite welcome.