Friday, December 31, 2010

Book " Saving capitalism from Capitalists " by Raghuram Rajan and Luis Zingales

Just completed reading the book. Well researched and structured book. The authors talk of something similar to the cosy club syndrome in Capitalism.

In principle they are free market proponents. They clearly advocate free market with a well developed financial markets but have pointed out how free markets never are free. They talk of how the system generally degenerates in to a entry barriers built by incumbents. The set of people who are thriving make special efforts to build barriers for new entrants in various ways.

How new technologies can kill existing Companies and with it the livelihood of many people. This becomes such an emotional issue that Governments ( with their political agenda) have to necessarily support the inferior or less productive companies just to ensure that workers are protected. Protection of this kind and not allowing entry to more productive and better technology Companies could be a big drain. It would be a good idea to compensate the workers with a pension or some kind of social security and close out the low productive units. But the cost of continuation of inferior units is not quantifiable Vis a Vis the human cost of laying off workers .

The authors continually talk of how Capitalism can never thrive without a proper regulatory framework , not to stifle the free market but to make sure that the free market is genuinly free and does not become a captive of incumbents and their machinations to keep the advantage with them.

The authors , with examples make a great case for Financial development and how a very well developed financial system fosters better competition, better products, lifestyle. They make a good case for , how a good financial system which is available to meritorious people , effectively nullifies the incumbents advantages, Their postulate is that a developed and good financial system is a necessity in keeping Capitalism pristine or shall we say free of the clutches of vested interests.


They talk of measures to ensure which includes

Strong social security ( built over the years and not just at the time of severance)

Regulated but not interfered and well developed financial systems and so on on so forth

Need to read once more to fully understand and capture all of what the authors say.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Thinkers and doers

When I talk of thinkers, I am not talking of thinkers who think so abstractly or come out with ideas which at no point of time turn out to be of any tangible use to the society. Of course one can't dismiss such abstract thinkers also. They possibly take care of the emotional and spiritual well being of people. Say a philosophert like Sankara, a Ramanuja or a Madhwa or some of the western philopsophers also.
Have in mind people with ideas whose ideas either during their lifetime ( rarely the case ) or after their life time have made a significant change for the better to the society. As against these , you have doers who create things , not original but create things which are of great of value to society and they themselevs do things which benefit society .

As against these, take the case of doers, large Industrialist , who provide employment to hundreds of people, who are such great adminsitrators that they provide the right kind of environment to thinkers to thrive.

Such doers achieve fame and get recognised during their lifetime and possible experience the high which comes with fame and adulation .

While we rememember a Tansen or a Kalidasa or a Theyegaraya or a Birbal or a Bhaskara or an Aryabhatta or an Einstein or an Adam Smith or a Newton ,who contributed to the society cerebrally, we also talk in admiration an Akbar or a Harshsvardhana or a Maurya.

The thinkers necessarily need the right kind of set up to thrive. A society can never dismiss a doer as kind of an inferior being Vis a Vis a thinker.

Doers get a high during their lifetime. Thinkers , rarely do so. They work against all odds for somethings which apparemtly may not be useful or may not even hit upon something.

But the greatest irony is , during their lifetime, work done by doers appear to be more important and relevant , the impact of thinkers and innovators has a greater and far reaching impact on the society in most of the cases in the distant future. The original thinkers and innovators ideas can be replicated several times wheras doers who in most cases make use of resources , natural and tangible , there is a limitation. It could be limited.

Doers also create lasting instituions which benefit the society for years.

The debate could go on. But the point is, it is much more fashionable and apparent relevance to be a doer since the highs could be intoxicating . Thinkers rarely get adulation during their lifetime. Their highs are internalised highs.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Cosy club syndrome

Do we in India have true democracy ? True democracy is one where everyone gets equal opportunity. How they use the opportunity is dependent on them. In India, it does not require great intelligence to conclude that , opportunities are to people in power or people related to them and close to them . At one point of time, you had the license Raj, which by its very nature afforded opportunities to people who could work their way around by greasing and letting the approvers share part of the booty.


While the License Raj has been dismantled and one would think to some extent the system has been cured of its ills, there still is enormous clout with the Government. They own substantial properties, rights of natural materials etc. Acquiring rights to them has become a matter of cosy club syndrom. People known, related to the people in power are the ones who are extended the benefits.They help each other to make sure that the national resources are distrubuted amongst the group. Such a nice and cosy club.


Just see the allottment of Housing membership (Adarsh Society in Mumbai ) , which was supposed to have been for war widows. 40% of that has been given to Civilians and senior army officials. They are feigning ignorance.



You had the Telecom license grants. Given to people from whom you get a kickbak. All natural resources or things in short supply or priveleges, all distributed amongst the cosy club, a club which is functional due to relationships or grease.


Just see what is happening to A. Raja the telecom Raja. He is supposed to have made a hell a lot of money . Still no action, he continues to be in the ministry. No one touches him.


Disgusting. Common man is deprived of such resources. The kind of money available with the top few , all acquired by stealthy means could easily be significant enough to push up the per capital incomes of people in India. You can have Citizen welfare without resorting to Communism which has its own downsides.
As a friend commented , the more one see this non sense, the more one would start sympathising with Maoists , naxalites .

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Kashmir confusion

First and foremost, I am no expert historian nor an expert political commentator nor a human activist. Now on with what I see ,read and think on Kashmir
The people of State is Jammu & Kashmir including Ladakh , I think have been in the news ( for may be close to 60 years ) for "azaadi "but the bone of contention is only Kashmir. Jammu with its majority Hindu population is quite okay as it is , that is , staying with India.
It is quite clear and obvious that Kashmiris want to be out of India. There is no denying that. I spent 2 months way back in 1987 , of course , I was on some work there and had not gone for review and study of Kashmir issue. It did not require a great mind or intellect to make out that the majority thought themselves as different from Hindustanis and thought that being part of India was an accident which had to be corrected. The divide and thinking clearly was on religious lines. I remember a recent article by TCA Srinivasaraghavan on claims of Kashmiriyat by the Kashmiris. He takes a dig at the vagueness of the whole concept and how Muslim Kashmiriyat is different from Hindu Kashmiriyat
Sporting events between and /or invloving India and Pakistan clearly used to bring out the difference. The office of Eveready Industries used to be more of Kashmiri Pandits and the workmen used to be more from the Kashmiri muslims. A Pakistan win or a India loss used to be celebrated by the workmen (Muslims) and an Indian victory used to be celebrated ( muted fashion) by the office folk ( Hindus )
People who talk of Kashmir being annexed to India being an accident have to just look at what all states were annexed to India. There was no India, it was just a whole maze of Princely states of various hue and colour and had gradually become part of the British Raj . From British Raj, it was transferred as property transfer to the Indian Raj. Some who where yet to part of British Raj were annexed by Sardar Patel quite brilliantly, that includes states like Hyderbad, Goa .etc etc.
All said and done, there was a common culture across the country with variations as we move down south from North of India. And again, right or wrong at some point we or our ertswhile rulers have been signatories to the annexation and we have all over a period of time bought in to the concept. We find safety and comfort in the larger country rather than being part of just smaller countries , like may be a Punjab, Tamilnadu, Bengal etc.
There have been several cases of people wanting to strike out on their own as seperate countries like Khalistan , even Tamilnadu for that matter several years back when the Dravida parties were claiming that the Tamils are culturally different and of course the whole of North east.
We are now part of one constituition and one nation which explicity talks of one nation , soverignty etc . Kashmir is no different from others. Just because, Kashmir is full of Muslims does not grant it a right to seperate out nor claim by a majority in that place give it the right to seperate out. Even now, you ask some of the states, they would want to secede and not want to be part of India. Punjab once though that they were subsidising the other parts of the country and were not able to enjoy the full fruits of their farm labour and productivity.
You encourage a Arundhati Roy , who shares platform with Geelani , a Kashmiri seperatist whose principles are based more on religious homgenity and nothing else, you will end up encouraging a whole lot of other elements. You will have too many fires to douse.
The seperatist voices in other states are a little less vocal these days, since the economy has started doing better.
For all these talks of , not encouraging seperatists, Congress has also miserably failed in kashmir. For all the so called priveleges , including a ban in buying of property in Kashmir by Non Kashmiris, Congress has not improved the lot of Kashmiris inspite of pouring money. Economy by all accounts is floundering. 60 years is a long time for Congress to do something. A simple hypothetical question, if Kashmir had been doing well and people had enjoyed better living, would there be clamour for seperating from India. A definite no. Who would want to part of Pakistan , a failed nation.
Arundhati Roy thinks she is some kind of Champion human rights activist who is always right ,putting her nose in to all kinds of things . One is not sure whether she has a good understading at all of all aspects of an issue. We atleast don't claim to know everthying.
Nobody , none of the human rights activist and in your face secularists like Arundhati Roy, Teesta Setalwad, almost the whole Congress clan ( for political reasons ) and so many so called intellectuals to whom public display of secularism is a ticket to being called an intellectual ,talks of the atrocities on Hindus in Kashmir. None of these human rights activist talk of the atrocities committed by the Maoist on general public, none of them talk of Muslim fundamentalism and bigotry. I am not for a moment defending Hindu bigotry. But lashing at Hindu fundamentalism appears easy in our country and you can get away easily.
People take offense atthe fact that some RSS leader had said that all Muslims are not terrorists but all terrorist are Muslims. While that may be an exaggeration, one can say that 80-90% of the terrorists are Muslims and all for religious reasons.
Can't understand for the life of me, as to why there should be a seperate law for Muslims in the name of secularism. One can argue that in India there is a seperate law for Hindus. I am against that also
Forget India, take countries like France etc which have one law. Muslims demand a seperate priveleges there too. Meshing with the local culture and being compliant to local laws and assimilating with the local population is not something that the Muslims want to do. They wasnt to maintain a seperate entity even in places where they are settlors.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Tendulkar in ESPN Cricinfor All time World XI

The jury consisting of ex captains and some Cricket Historians etc have come out with the XI and an alternate XI


The First XI is


Jack Hobbs, Len Hutton , Don Bradman, Sachin Tendulkar, Viv Richards, Garry Sobers, Adam Glichrist, Wasim Akram, Malcolm Marshall, Deniss Lillee, Shane Warne


Not much to argue . All of then have proved their worth over a long period , not just flavour of a few seasons.
This kind of team, there will always be a bias in favour of people that you see as against the ones you have just heard.In some cases it works the other way. What you have not seen sounds and seems better than what you have seen. In the instant case, it seems to be the former.
There will always be debates. People will argue Lara Vs Tendulkar etc. What , I think settles the issue in favour of Tendulkar is his longevity , greater professionalis, his versatility and success in all formats. Lara was also good in ODI , but not quite as successful. Apart from his stupendous record in Tests (49 Centuries ) and ODI s also (46 Centuries), just look at his record in World Cups. He may not have won a World Cup, but made Semis once and Finals once. Was man of the Cup twice, I think once in 1996 and again in 2003.
There was a time ,in 2005-06, when people were comparing him unfavourably with Dravid, especially in the Test arena. I recall , even someone like Srinath ( Test player) mentioned that Dravid was possibly a marginally a better test player. That was the time when Tendulkar was plagued by injuries and was having an extended lean period. He came back with a bang from Austrlai series in 2008 scoring 2 Hundreds and 2 Half centuries and was the Highest run getter from India in that series and has not looked back.
One has to concede that Dravid was and is a great player and has been unfortunate that he is playing in the same era as Tendulkar and that too in the same team, but by a substantila margin, it is Tendulkar. Unmatched versatility. Come to think of it, one always felt that how good he looks when he defends or attacks, his average should have been upwards of 60 and not 56.96 as is the case now. If one were to go by averages against Australia and others, most batsman have an average of atleast 15-20 runs plus against other teans as they have against Australia. By that token, , his should have been 75 against other teams, his average against Australi being 60. Unfortunately that is not the case. His average against SA and Pakistan are lesser than his average against oz.
It is the misfortune of great batsman that their worst is always compared with the best of others and judgements made. Their own high standards become a benchmark for them .

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Magnified play of Pareto in Human development

Pareto principle expounded by that very perceptive Intalian economist Pareto, talks of how 80% of the value or anything for that matter is contributed by 20% in number and how 20% of the value is constituted by 80% in number. This finds almost universal application , be it in the output of people in organisations, may be traffic on roads in a city ,may be popultation distribution, income distribution so on and so forth.
In the matter of inventions/dicoveries and ideas the ratio could be even more skewed. It is quite possible that inventions/ideas and discoveries that have benefited mankind the most could have been originated by may be 0.001% of the population. Human beings have a tremendous ability to record, replicate and use such inventions/ideas and discoveries to their advantage.
Most of us, almost all of us are beneficiaries if largesse of a small percentage of the population. This being the case,that is almost all of us being benefiaries in almost equal measure of a very few people, it is quite ironical that the wealth distribution is not better distributed .
The economists call the these gaps in "delivery" . Tamil what they say, even when the god grants a boon, the priest does not grant.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Went to watch the Bangalore Test match after almost 30 years

After almost or in fact 30 years I think, went to watch the test match against Australia in Bangalore , the first two days Oct 9 & 10. Oct 9 was a saturday and there was a decent crowd. Heavy security with a lot of restrictions. No food to be carried, mobiles were allowed. Lot of confusion. There is a general cry to promote test matches. But the facilities at the ground did not quite measure up with those sentiments expressed in different quarters.There was heavy rush at the food counter, few guys selling chips etc inside the seating areas were charging exhorbitant rates. No water bottles also were allowed inside. The kind of money Board generates, they can make much better arrangements
Anyway the experience was good, overall experience on the first day it was not not quite to my expectations , but it got better the second day. On Oct 10 , the second day of the match, went after having lunch at home , possibly was better because of that.
First day Australia batted . Saw Ricky Ponting bat ( scored 70+ and played quite well) and the other Australians bat.
Another problem was , there was only one giant screen and that was located on the same side that we were sitting close to North stand. You miss something, you can't catch up later unless you come home and catch up the highlights.
It is a different experience , watching match live and in a stadium. Of course you need to get the right position. North stand was directly in line with the Pitch. You could see the movement to some extent. Of course part of the viewing pleasure goes , since the seats are located slightly away. This in a stadium which is supposed to be close to the pitch. Three dimension and full view of the ground all make up for what you lose on other aspects .
Last match , I had gone was in MA Chidambaram in 1980 , I think . Australia Vs India, im Hughes team against Gavasakar;s India. Recall Kapil scored a quick 80 plus. I had gone for two days , I think. Recall Border hitting a Century. I hope I am right. Doshi got 6 wickets, I think.
Second day of this Bangalore test, the high point was watching Sachin Tendulkar bat. He was 44 not out on Sunday ( came in at a critical juncture after Sehwag and Dravid had got out ) ,batted calmly and picked up a few boundaries picking the gap beautifully. On Monday( third day and I did not go) went on to score 191 and continued the next day and ended up with 214. Earlier , that is on second day, Sehwag after a few exciting strokes got our . Murali Vijay looked good, he went on to score a century the next day. Dravid was a bit of a disappointment on Day 2 . Got out chasing an outside the off stump delivery from Mitchell Johnson. Only saving grace of this was , got to watch Tendulkar bat for a little over an hour before end of day's play.
Good thing was , India went to win the match after some hiccups.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Man who knew Infinity by Robert Kanigel


Srinivasa Ramanujan may have had a short life but his short life had captured the imagination of a cross section of Mathematicians, intellectuals , commoners for the sheer romanticim of rags to riches of an intellectual type.What adds to the aura was that he almost completely self learnt maths and rediscovered in quite a number of cases already discovered Higher mathematics on his own.

Robert Kanigel has brought a deep understanding , a humility in trying to learn and understand the social miilieu , at that point of time,in South India, the social millieu , more specifcally of the South Indian Brahmin community. The way he has reasearched and brought out the background and underlying meanings of certain practices , words ,is remarkable. He throws in underlying meanings of Sannidhi, derivation and meaning of Triplicane( Tiru alli keni which means sacred lily tank ) talks how Ramanujan developed his skills playing Adu Puli ( Tiger and Goats literally ) with his mother or was it Pallanguzhi ?. He beautifully brings out the earlier generation practice of child marriage and the convictions surrounding it, the conflicts between a young daughter in law from a lower strata ( economically ) of the society and the domineering mother in law. How the daughter in law is kept away from the son.

Very perceptive observations by the author.

He explores the mind of the genius , how from a person who was excelling in all aspects of academia, he gets so focussed on mathematics to the exclusion of all other subjects.

He talks of how the education system was not quite amenable to encouragement of a genius. Our education system encourages average ability or to put it crudely, mediocrity across rather than extraordinary ability in one area . How success or view of success by society and how job opportunities are dependent on a formal degree rather than just ability.


One thing to be said in favour is that there were quite a few people who saw the genius in him and gave him a leg up starting from Ramachandra Rao, to Narayanaswami Iyer to Seshu Iyer.
etc.

The author also delves on the system in Cambridge, Tripos which was possibly the toughest and which to a large extent encouraged problem solving of known things rather than a laissez faire of an open research. The author does extensive research on Hardy and the English millieu at that point of time.Hardy was one of those great intellectuals who found the Tripos very oppressive . He was all for pure reasearch. The author captures a view that post Newton, there was an era of English mathematicians living in a world of ,mathematics of taking past as sacrosanct, as axioms and not really questioining or even exploring newere concpets. The rigour of proofs and evidence brought in by the European mathematicians was lacking. Hardy was one of thos who took the lead in bringing back the rigour and spirit of exploration .Hardy remained a bachelor all his life . Was a devoted brother , his sister too remaining a spinster. Was a man with great interest in Cricket. Typical English Intellectual with interest in Cricket and great interest in Pure maths .

After several failures in Coleges starting from Kumbakonam Colege and Pachaiyappa's college, Ramanujan does get some encouragement from people within the Mathematics Community. Was afforded for sometime some private scholarship by oen Ramachandra Rao. Later based on recommendations by various people manages to land up a job in Port Trust.Gets encoraged by some Englishman in India who were in Government employment.

Encourage by local support and prodded on, Ramanujan does manage to write to Hardy. Introduces himself as a clerk who is not formally trained in Maths and not following the treaded groove/beaten track but is striking out his path. Sends several formulae on prime numbers, infinite series, sends his article on Bernouli's numbers. Send enough to create interest in Hardy but also no proofs that also creates doubts in Hardy's mind


Hardy refers the letter to another great mathematician of his time. Littlewood, to ascertain the genuinness of the person and the capability of the writer (Ramanujan). Comes to a conclusion that , the writings were not that of a quack but a brilliant mind , probably not trained. Makes arrangement to get him over to Englang. After initial reservations, Ramanujan undertakes the journey to England. First two years makes significant progress. His area of spcialisation was more on numbers, Prime numbers, Composite numbers, integers , inifnite series, partitions, continous franctions. He does add to his arsenal under Hardy's tutelage without really losing his originality and creativity.
Lack of vegetarion food during wartime ( First world war ), the cold weather , lack of communication from wife and simmering unrest on the home front between his mother and wife , his own reluctance to take proper care of his health, sickness etc , renders him sick or aggravates the sickness. Diagnosed at various points of time as Tuberculosis, amoebiasis, he had to return to India in 1919 after of course a great recognition in the form of Fellow of Royal Society. Hardy plays a pivotal role in having this expedited.
After return to India, while he does have access to good food, the damage had already been done,. It was just downhill in terms of health, he does prodice some great matehmatics towards the end, which is termed the " Lost notebook". Dies in 1920 at the age of 32.
Great life cut short at the prime. Imponderable are, what coul dhave been the achievement if only
- he had got more training at an early stage
- if he had been familiarised with development in mathematics the last 100 years
( he spent significant time rediscovering several aspects of mathematics)
-he had lived a bit longer
But one also has to concede that he acheieved what he did only because by a starnge quirk of fate and circumtsances. his capability and work came to the fore and he spent time in England and quite a number of his work found its way to good mathematcians.
His notebooks filled with several theorems and formulae when he was in India as also his : lost notebook" have been researched and are still being researched and some new applications and use are being discovered.First by Watson , later by George Andrews and much later by Bruce Brendt .
One things is sure, he had caught the fascination of the south Indian brahmin psyche so much that , post his death for almost 40-50 years, good mathematicians who came out from south were inspired by Ramanujan to take up mathematics .He still is a great inspirational figure. What is amazing was single minded focus on mathematics and fiery desire to do what he liked best , in the midst of huge personal problems, relative poverty .
Very well researched and written.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Sad news- Passing away of an ex colleague

Got to know the shocking news of passing away of Venkateswaran ( Venkat ), who used to work along with the undersigned in APC . Excellent person, very calm but extraordinarily efficient and effective person. He used to take care of Engineering. Was in Motorola before joining APC. In between left APC , joined Elcoteq but rejoined APC.Was a vey active member of the APC team under Javed.

Was an excellent engineer , good organiser and a very good human being.

Recall the very effective way he used to organise APC Annual days along with Suneeta ,Praveen Das and Devdas.

Understand that he was diagnosed with Bone marrow cancer just about a month back . Came out when they tried to probe reasons for fever. Very sad. Found it very diificlut to digest the fact. He was just 36-37. Prosys Manju sent across a message. Later spoke to him. Shivram spoke and later Suneeta.

Sadder part is , he is survived by his old parents , his wife and sister .

Srinivas babu just now spoke .

May his soul rest in peace. Sincerely pray that God gives his family the strength to bear the loss.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Just an update

Have given reading a pause for the last two months after a fairly hectic reading period of around 6 months. Right from Sept 1 st , after leaving employment, had been reading up a quite a bit and in fact had been posting reviews on most of the books. Last time, that I managed to do this kind of reading was after CA Final exams and to some extent last employment gap , that is between Future metals and Mantri Developers.
The reading that I did after CA exams was more of fiction and this time , I would think it would have been 40:60 , Fiction : Non fiction.
This time the gap has been much longer.Reading has taken a back seat in the last few months , now that we have started working from office at Rajaji nagar. Few contracts are trickling in but not a deluge or for that matter not very remunerative by any stretch of imagination as of date. All that we need to get is just one decent break in terms of a decent deal. That will give a great deal of confidence .
Atleast, would have been happier if the Sonata software had taken off or I had chosen to sell once it reached Rs 65. Now it has slid back to Rs 59.
I am still hoping that TNPL ,SPB and Vardhman would get to 2-2.5 times the current market prices of Rs 98, 198 and 260 respectively
Have rejected another interview offer , one Namdhari seeds. Not sure whether , it is the right decision or should have atleast attended the interview

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Common stocks and uncommon profits by Philip Fisher

Read “ Common stocks and uncommon profits by Philip A Fisher. Was first written way back in 1956 and retains by and large the main material out of that and has been updated for developments subsequently till the early 80 s. Lengthy introdcution and foreword by son Ken Fosher who himself was a very successful investor.
Warren Buffet was supposed to have taken several ideas of Fisher especially on the growth stocks.

Very insightful and admirable in that quite a number of ideas and propositions put forward by the Author has still a lot of relevance, in fact most of them have relevance. It is quite amazing that the Author talked of Technology and more specifically Electronics and Semi conductors when both were fledgling and when one would not have had much of an idea how they would shape up.

Right through the book there is emphasis on Investment in Companies which have an Insititutional culture like long term goals, R & D , people orientation etc. This at a time when there were talks of labour exploitation etc.

Author talks of long term investment and that too in growth Companies . He is more oriented towards growth in sales and earnings rather than trying to sweep the existing minor variations in valuations that arise out of price play.

He does talk about the buying at the right time but the emphasis is more on Investment research, zeroeing on grothw Companies and buying in to them.

Excellent read.

He talks of the need to balance Dividend distribution and reuse of money for internal growth.

Just listing out 15 Points the Author has mentioned as the basic selection criteria for Investments

1.Does the Company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizeable increase in sales for atleast several years ?

2.Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth lines have largely been exploited ?

3.How effective are the Company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size ?

4.Does the Company have an above average sales organisation ?

5.Does the Company have above average profit margin ?

6.What is the Company doing to maintain or improve profit margin ?

7.Does the Company have outstanding labor and personnel relations ?

8.Does the Company have outstanding executive relations ?

9.Does the Company have depth to its management ?

10.How good are Company’s cost analysis and accounting controls ?

11.Are there other aspects of the business somewhat peculiar to the Industry involved which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the Company may be in relation to its competition ?

12.Does the Company have a short range or long range outlook in regard to profits ?

13.In the foreseable future will the growth of the Company require equity financing so that the larger number of shares outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholder’s benefit from the anticipated growth ?

14.Does the management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but clam up when troubles and disappointments occur ?

15.Does the Company have a management of unquestionable integrity ?

The author talks of scuttlebutt method which essentielly means , checking up about the Companyt with outside experts and more importantly with people who have something to do with the Company and or its products like the Customers, Distributors, vendors , Industry experts etc.

The author alo list 5 Don’s for Investors

1.Don’t buy in to promotional companies
He primarily talsk of Companies getting in to unchartered territories , say new products or new process etc and says that this should be left to specialised financing entities/groups , may be like Venture Cpaital etc.

2.Don’t ignore a good stock just because it is traded “ over the counter”.
This is more liquidity and fear on availability and price call

3.Don’t buy a stock just because you like the tone of its annual report

4.Don’t assume that the high price at which a stock may be selling in relation to earnings is necessarily an indication that further growth in those earnings has largely been already discounted in the price ?


5. Don’t quibble over eigths and quarters.
Author talks of how the small price variations are nothing compared to the kind of growth that we anticpiate and expect to gain. He talks of people putting some arbitray limits for buying whis continues to be a shade lower than the actula market price and how the stock never comes to that pric and lives up to our expectation of growing. The amount we lose is a lot more than the amount we would have lost by paying few pence more

Five more don’ts for Investor

1. Don’t overstress diversification
2. Don’t be afraid of buying on a ware scare
3. Don’t forget your Gilbert and Sullivan, which one understanmds means that do not pay too much attention or give undeserved attention to superficial financial statistics
4. Don’t fail to consider time as well as price in buying a true growth stock
5. Don’t follow the crowd

Attractive part of the book is its relevance even after 50 years. Author touches upon the imporance of margins on sales, ability to grow sales, need for people orientation to keep the morale high for more productive results etc

Friday, February 12, 2010

Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell

Just finished reading this book. As the topic of the book is suggestive, it is about the tipping point where things gather momentum and become a kind of a deluge. It could be a product plodding along in the market for long and suddenly shooting up . The author specifically brings in Hush puppies . How word of mouth in small corners of a small towns, becomes some kind of a large movement where every one is trying to get on to the bandwagon. The point the author brings in is that there could be linearity in all things up to some extent, once the tipping point is reached, things just shoot up.
He traces the reasons for tipping point and also traces the people and the events that lead to this. He talks of Mavens, connectors and salesmen who act as the catalysts and more .
A very nice concept the author brings out is the relationship between crime and what he describes or rather what is generally described as Broken window sysdrome. He talks of the contextuality for behavioural responses . A broken window which is quite visible across, leads to a general acceptance and almost a certain permission for lawlessness.He traces how crime rate in New york came down, when the suburban train authorities addressed Graffitti , ticketless travel by additional manning etc and other hygiene issues in the system rather than reacting to crimes by just arresting people in response to crimes.
Inter relationship of Contextuality and a behaviour is something very real and we see that around us.If a certain type of behaviour is accepted or tolerated easily, we do find that the society and people around us behave in certain ways without any trace of guilt or misgiving.
We see the relevance of Tipping point in all aspects of life , whether a dress code or a growth of a Company or an Industry etc

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Empires of the Indus by Alice Albinia

This is a travelogue cum historical cum archaelogical. I had read a book review of this a few years back in Business World , I think. It had come in for high appreciation.
Excellent. The Author has travelled right across the delta of Indus right through the tributarties to the main source near Tibet
Admirable stuff. It is no easy task, a young woman through , Pakistan , Afghansitan and parts of Muslim dominated India ( in Kashmir ) and Tibet.
She stays for days in unlikeliest of places , with locals, roughing it out with them in huts /semi permanent structures , managing to stay in uncomfortable places ,eating whatever was locally available. Just reflects the focus and committment of the author.
It is very difficult to capture in a "precise" all that the author came out in the book. It definitely requires another read. This was written over a period of 4 years.
First and foremost, the author makes a point that the river Indus which finds several mention and did in fact form a major part of the Hindu scriptures ( more specifically Rig Veda )runs mostly through Pakistan. Together with Ravi, Beas , Sutlej, Jhelum and Chenab , and two other rivers from Afghanistan and North west Frontier it flows south , forming a delta in Pakistan and gets in to Arabic ocean.
The author traces the name of India from Sindhu,Indu and Indus to India.
There are some interesting pieces like, presence of Sheedis who were migrants form Zanzibar or Ethiopia.
There is the mention of how Buddhism grew in parts of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan and Afghanistan right from the days of Ashoka, Kushans and Kanishka. Budhist monasteries set across , the silk route helped merchants in easier movement and in a way helped in propagation of Buddhism. Places like Bamiyan where there were huge Buddha sculptures , one may recall were destroyed by the Taliban.These were , supposedly more than 2000 years old.
She also traces Ghanzni and Babur from Turkey and Uzbek to Afghanistan to India
The author reads up on Rig Veda( she , one understands ,is quite conversant with urdu)
She visits Harappa and Mohenjadaro and touches upon the not conclusively proved theory of the IndusValley Civilisation in the two cities ( which were very well developed with Civic facilities)
was well before Hinduism and how the Aryans coming in Horses drew the people in these places down south.
Interesting bit of information of Polyandry in some parts of Tibet and she drawa comparison to Polandry in Mahabharatha.
It is like reading a History book and unless one notes down , assiduosly, one can not do justice to a precise also.
It is first hand account by an unbiased Historian and deserves to be read and reread for better understanding. One is left with admiration on the kind of courage shown by the author in travelling ( on jeeps, cars, buses and on foot) through all kinds of terrain.

May be next read should be a bit slower and should note down the chronology and the sequence better.

She is also saddened by the fact that the river is running dry in some places and heavily dammed so much so that the delta which was quite rich is now rendered dry and devoid of any significant cultivation.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Kite Runner by Khalid Hosseini

Very moving story woven around displaced Afghan s, , atrocities in Afghanistan perpetrated initially by the Communist regime and the Russians and later by the Taliban.


Story carries a lot of conviction, the Author himself , being one of the Afghans, who spent his early years in Kabul and shifting to US in the early 80 s. Part auto biographical I presume and longing to get back their old peaceful land though I would think, that peace in a place like Afghanistan was far and few between.


The story brings out the kind of huge divide between the Sunnis ( Majority in Afghanistan) and Shias who are a minority and by and large confined to one part of Afghanistan. Contempt and feeling of superiority by the local Pashtuns Vis a Vis the Hazaras ( the Shia Muslims of Afghanistan , who bear a facial resemblance to Mongolians) just shows that rascism was/is as much in Asia as it is in Europe or US or Australia.



Having a normal life under a peaceful Government is a big blessing, atleast that is what one would feel once one reads the state of affairs in Countries like Afghanistan. The sad irony is , how the locals welcome the Talibans ( post the communist rule and the Russioan puppet Governments) and in a matter of few days Talibal prove to be a far worse alternative. They carry out ethnic cleansing by getting rid of Hazaras ( the shias with part Mongolian lineage).


The author weaves the story in such a way that the protagonist of the story feels a deep sense of guilt both on the personal front which realy reflects on the larger social front also since almost all the Afghans who leave their country to greener pastures would be carrying a certain sense of guilt.The story traces the journey of the main character , how he gets back to Kabul and brings back his childhood mate's and half brother's ( he himself gets to know about it much later ) son to US. His father had fathered his half brother with the servant's ( Hazara ) wife .


When intellectuals across the globe are talking of the accelerated development happening across the globe, here is one country ( seems to be the case across all these theocratic states )which appears to be going back to uncivilised and hunting days, where survival is just dependent on which side of the political class you lean or you just get killed. May be there is a lesson for all of us , may be a inclusive growth would help us all have a more peacful world. The deprived lean and take refuge under extreme religion . Religion is some kind of a drug ( Oscar wilde or Stevenson said that Religion is an opiate of the masses ) which gives the udnerprivelged a perceived equal status and also the freedom without any sense of guilt to usurp from the haves.

A world without war and conflicts arising out of greed to rule and enjoy at the epxens of others, may be a Utopic world, not real.

While Western nations, more specifically , Germany has its great sense of guilt , in Holocaust, it appears that quite a number of other nations have had its own share of Holocaust equivalent.

Scary part is, weapons with enormous destructive potentiel are in the hand of some of these theocratic states , more specifcally our neighbours who are sliding fast on a path of self destruction , they may unwittingly take us along with them, if not fully , atleast they may cause huge damage.


Saturday, January 16, 2010

Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Quite a tough read. Author tries to bring out the point how, we quite often mistake success by chance to some innate abillity. Talks , how we inspite of knowledge and research, when acting are instinctive. One point which comes out quite often in the book and which makes a lot of sense of what he terms survivorship bias. He talks how most of the samples chosen for studies are the ones which have survived and and obviously have the chances of being highy successful. The ones which have failed and have fallen by the wayside do not figure in the study at all, skewing the results .
Author comes domes down heaviliy on economists. His refrain is that Economics which is a socail science has been made a mathematicak science by Economists who had great mathematical knowledged and tried fitting in human behaviour in to mathematical models. He is quite vocal and forthright in mentioining that these so called Econometricians have done greater damage to Economics .
He takes the example of Trading community ( more specifically the derivatives and securities ) and brings out how successes could be more in numbers but of smaller magnitude and failures though fewer in numbers generally wipe out the trader. He gives several examples for this. Occurences whose occurence is expected to be rare or impossible are the ones which wipe out people since the tendency is to take chances on those .
Author is well read and quotes Philosophers and probability theoreticians and mathematicians in ample measure.
May have to read once again. Have bought " Black swan" by the same author. Understand that , the latest alsoe deals with rare occurences and how they impact our lives in a big way.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell

Good book, quite different from others. Deals with factors which contributed to success of Individuals or groups of Individulas. The authors backs his theories with data. The thrust is on how various factors, societal, circumstantial etc play a part in pushing a person up in the field of his choice and in fact sometime the field of choice itself is dictated by circumstamces.

He does not totally discount innate ability or intelligence , but makes a case for how , circumstances, hardworkplay , being in the right place at the right time make a huge difference in making a person successful .


He starts off with a simple example of Canadian hockey team. He starts with a simple but a bit of a shocking statistic of how most of the top class players in Canadian Ice Hockey team are all born in the first hal of the year, in fact clustered around Jan -Mar. He goes back and finds that the cut off for age group categorisation in Canadian Hockey is Jan 1, and in the age group competitions , how a being older a few months especially when the boys are 10,11 or so, make a huge difference in physical development. Since perform better , they get grouped for special training , receive special training and coaching, get to play with better players, these in turn leave them better players and gives them a lifelong advantage. Ultimately , it is the additional coaching and practice which make them the outliers rather than just the ability


The author also bring up the point of family's role , in terms of the environment in which the kids are brouight up and how their life is shaped by the kind of activities they are pushed to when they are young.

To support his claim, he takes out data how, kids from lower,middle and high Income families studying in the same school make similar progress when the school is in session and how the Middle and higher income kids get ahead post the summer vacation. This is primarily due to the kind of learning and activites that are encouraged by the parents in the off school days.



The author analyses the importance of several hours of practice and working on a specific area of specialistaion. He talks about the 10,000 hour rule which is nothing but, how a person becomes a top notch expert once he has put in around 10,000 hours of practice or work in a specific area of expertise.



He brings in the examples of Bill Joy who was one of the architects of the programmes on which most of Internet runs, Bill Gates founder of Microsoft who somehow got hooked on to Computers due to availability and how they honed theor skills with hours of practice by working hours on Computers which were by sheer set of circumstances available to them. This availaibility was a matter of great advantage at a time when there were not too many computers available.The author also brings in how the Beatles looking for some income , employment got an offer to play in Hamburg on small platforms and how theye filled in hours and hours and honed their skills.



He also brings in the story of how the Immigrant Jews from Europe with certain skills in the garment Industry became a raging success in US . While it is true that they displayed entreprenership and risk taking capability, they were also helped by the fact that there was a specific need for the skill set that they possessed and they made us of the same to get ahead in life.

The author nrings in his own family background of how colour prejudice plays up one set of people and hels them get ahead in life. He traces his origin on his mother's side to a great great great grandmother who was a slave and with whom the white owner has a relationship and has kids through her and how mulattos were considered in a predominantly Black Jamaica , were considered superior to Blacks and were bestowed priveleges and how the samw helped them get ahead. he also mentions the enactment at the right time of law by the Brotishers to help Blacks and the colored to get a better life.

Good book , easy language, something all of us can relate to and backed by data